Data from the full report on Manufacturers’ shipments and new orders. Chart by MishNew Orders
Shipments
Inventories
Advance ReportOn June 27, I reported Durable Goods New Orders Rise Slightly From Big Negative Revision
The Commerce Dept revised durable goods orders for April from 0.7% to 0.2%. This is the 2nd month with huge negative revisions.
Full Report Comments
Revisions, Revisions, RevisionsNote the ongoing revisions, all of them negative and significantly so.It was the negative revisions and the ISM services report, that led me to conclude the GDPNow forecast would drop.
Expect another big dive in GDPNow
Details shortly
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) July 3, 2024
The edit was changing “a another” to “another”.Services ISM PlungesEarlier today, I noted The Services ISM Plunges Into a Recession Forecasting Contraction
The ISM Services report was a disaster. Based on the current report, the overall economy dipped into contraction.
There was one positive wildcard that kept the GDPNow forecast from plunging more than it did.I will comment on the GDPNow report next.More By This Author:The Services ISM Plunges Into A Recession Forecasting ContractionHow Much Are State and Local Government Workers Overpaid?Job Quits Spotlight A Dramatic Weakening Of The Labor Market
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