Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 20 And November 27

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of November 20

       

November 20

       

Leading Indicators

0.4%

-0.1

0.6

           

November 21

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index – October

0.20

0.17

0.2

 

Existing Home Sales – October

5.430M

5.390

5.425

           

November 22

       

Durable Goods Sales – October

0.5%

2.0

0.5

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

235K

249

240

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – November (r)

97.8

97.8

97.9

           

November 23

       

Thanksgivng

                 

November 24

       

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

54.9

54.6

54.6

 

PMI Services Flash Index

55.5

55.3

55.4

           

Week of November 27

       

November 27

       

New Home Sales – October

630K

667

   

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

25.0

27.6

             

November 28

       

International Trade in Goods – October

-$66.0B

-64.1

   

FHFA Housing Price Index – Sept

0.5%

0.7

             

S&P Case/Shiller Index – September

       

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.4

   

Twenty City M/M – SA

0.3

0.5

   

Twenty City Y/Y

6.2

5.9

             

Consumer Confidence – November

126.3

125.9

   

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

15

12

             

November 29

       

GDP – Q2 (r)

3.1%

3.0

   

Pending Home Sale Index – October

107.0

106.0

             

November 30

       

Personal Income – October

0.3%

0.4

   

Personal Spending

0.3

1.0

             

Chicago PMI

64.2

66.2

             

December 1

       

Auto Sales* – November

17.7M

18.1

   

Car Sales

6.4

6.6

   

Truck Sales

11.3

11.5

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

                 

ISM (Mfg) – November

58.5

58.7

             

Construction Spending – October

0.6%

0.3